Nick Chubb: No Thanks (Fantasy Football)
Fantasy football analysts far and wide are calling Nick Chubb a sure-fire RB1 this season. I’m not, and here’s why: Kareem Hunt.
Yes, Chubb finished as RB7 last year in total points (Half-PPR). Yes, Chubb finished as RB10 in Points-Per-Game (PPG). Yes, The Browns have an actual coach this year in Kevin Stefanski, former offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings. I get all that, but you know what?
None of it matters.
You know what does matter? Nick Chubb will be splitting time this season with Kareem Hunt, making it extremely difficult for either to finish in the top 12 at the running back position. For evidence of that, look no further than Chubb’s season splits before and after Kareem Hunt came back from suspension:
Nick Chubb Statistics (2019)
| Statistic | First 8 Games (Hunt Suspended) | Last 8 Games (Hunt Active) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing Attempts (per game) | 19.25 | 15.5 |
| Rushing Yards (total) | 803 | 691 |
| Targets (per game) | 4 | 2.1 |
| Receptions (total) | 25 | 11 |
| Receiving Yards (total) | 161 | 117 |
| Touchdowns (total) | 6 | 2 |
| Points-Per-Game (half-PPR) | 17.4 (RB6) | 12.3 (RB21) |
With a PPG average that would have made him RB6 on the season during Hunt’s suspension, owners were no-doubt disappointed to see his scoring decline to a low-end RB2 level after Hunt came back. What were Kareem Hunt’s numbers over the final 8 games of the season, you ask?
Kareem Hunt averaged 5.4 rushing attempts per game, 5.5 targets per game, scored 2 rushing touchdowns (he scored a third touchdown receiving), and averaged 10.4 PPG over the final 8 games of the 2019 season. That 10.4 PPG would have been good enough to make him RB29 on the year (Half-PPR). How did he do it?
Kareem Hunt took a very modest number of early downs away from Nick Chubb, but dominated Chubb in playing time on passing downs. In receiving statistics, Hunt went 37/285/1 through the air in the 8 games following his suspension. Chubb went 36/278/0 on the year, and he went only 11/117/0 in the 8 games following Hunt’s suspension. Yikes.
As you can imagine, losing a significant amount of third-down work greatly affected Chubb’s output over the final weeks of the season. However, it doesn’t tell the whole story. If you look at the final 5 games of the season, Chubb’s numbers were much, much worse. Chubb averaged only 10.4 PPG during this time. Why? Chubb put up single-digit performances in 3 of the last 5 games. Worse yet, the teams he dropped those single-digit games to were conference opponents in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati! Cleveland has to play these teams a combined 6 times in 2020, including a Week 14 tilt (and fantasy playoff opener) against the Ravens. Woof.
Nick Chubb is ranked all the way up at RB9 by ESPN and his current Average-Draft-Position (ADP) is 12.8 overall. No thanks.
