Josh Jacobs, the Ultimate Draft Value
Finding players who will out-perform their average draft position (ADP) can be quite the challenge. This series highlights players who (we believe) will greatly out-perform their current ADP and therefore present tremendous value in fantasy football drafts. First up, Josh Jacobs.
If Jacobs’s stats from the 13 games he completed last year were averaged and projected over a 16 game season, he would have churned out 298 rushing attempts, 1,400+ yards, and 9 touchdowns on the ground. For reference, only two running backs finished last season with more than 1,400 rushing yards: Derrick Henry (currently being drafted as RB6 on ESPN) and Nick Chubb (currently being drafted as RB8 on ESPN). Neither of them figure to be three-down backs this season, yet both are being drafted well ahead of Josh Jacobs, who is currently being drafted as RB13 on both ESPN and Yahoo. Landing Jacobs at the end of the second round is like committing an all-or-nothing casino heist and getting away with it. A perfect story line for the innagural season of the Las Vegas Raiders and a wonderful plotline for Ocean’s 14. I can see Brad Pitt ziplining into the stadium now. I digress.
Why is Josh Jacobs being drafted so late? He comes into this season with one of the best offensive lines in football (ranked 11th overall per Pro Football Focus), DeAndre Washington is gone (last year’s third down back), and HC John Gruden spent the entire off-season yelling and screaming that Jacobs will be a three-down back when he wasn’t drawing up variations to ‘Spider-2 Y-Banana’. This offseason could not have gone any better for Jacobs.
Yes, Jalen Richard is still on the team, but no one should be intimidated by last year’s third string running back. He won’t be used for anything more than giving Jacobs a breather this season. Nothing to see here, ‘folks.
Yes, Derek Carr is only an ‘average’ NFL quarterback, but he’s good enough to keep the Raiders in games. What’s more, even when they DO drop the eventual clunker, Jacobs will be there to reel in catches from ‘Dump-Off Derek’ in garbage time. Did you know that Raiders running backs combined for 118 targets last season? That was good for 10th highest in the league at the position. Imagine if those targets went to one guy, or if a majority of them did. Hmm…
And yes, the Raiders drafted Lynn Bowden Jr. out of Kentucky at 80th overall. What can I say, the guy is a touchdown waiting to happen. But, do you really think John Gruden is going to throw in a rookie who has only had 14 padded practices to learn and implement complex pass protection schemes? Fat chance. The lack of preseason games has all but sunk Bowden’s chance to make a difference early this season outside of special teams contributions.
As if all of that wasn’t enough reason for you to get out and draft Jacobs at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second, here are some next-level stats courtesy of Player Profiler:
Josh Jacobs finished 3rd in the league in breakaway runs (carries of 15 or more yards) last season with 13;
He finished 9th in the league in yards created (earned above and beyond what was blocked) with 463;
He finished 8th in evaded tackles with 81; and
He did all of this with a fractured shoulder. Talk about grittiness.
I am going to beat this drum until Jacobs is being drafted in the top 10 overall. The guy is a stud and averaged 14 fantasy points-per-game (ppg) last season, good for 13th at the position. The fact that he’s currently the 13th running back being drafted is an insult to him and that offense. He split time and was dealing with a significant injury and STILL produced fringe RB1 numbers. All of that is gone this year.
Running backs with a higher ADP than Jacobs include Derrick Henry, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, and Austin Ekeler. I will draft Josh Jacobs ahead of all of these guys with confidence, or I may grab a receiver, wait, and get him at a huge value in the second round. If his ADP holds, Josh Jacobs will be the ultimate draft value this fantasy football season and the next Soderbergh star. That’s right Topher.
