Jason’s HOT or NOT: Week 5 Sit/Start (2020 Fantasy Football)
I’ll never forget the phone conversation I had with my dad about wanting to go to graduate school.
My parents were living in my childhood home in the suburbs of Chicago, and I was living and working in western Pennsylvania. After about a year out there, I was ready to be closer to home and so I started looking for work in Chicagoland. I applied for job after job with no luck, losing out to candidates with master’s degrees. I was discouraged beyond measure and convinced myself I wouldn’t be able to land a job closer to home without a post-graduate degree. My mind was made up: I have to go back to school.
The catch? I didn’t have any money saved and couldn’t afford it on my own. I knew it would be a difficult conversation, but I had to ask my parents if they would be willing to help put me through school (again). Growing up, my dad always told me that I would have to pay for anything after the first four years of college, and I don’t think he ever thought I’d want to go to graduate school.
And so I spent weeks researching in preparation for the phone call. I looked up employment rates, career paths, and lifetime earnings numbers for those with and without advanced degrees. I looked into every university within a four-hour drive and saught out scholarship and assistance information. After compiling everything into one nice, neat spreadsheet, I made the call.
My mother answered the phone and immediately handed it over to my dad after I told her about my plan, saying, “You better speak to your father about this.”
I was too nervous to speak when he got on the line, eventually stammering, “D-Dad, I’d like to go to graduate school.”
Silence.
It was only a few seconds, but it felt like a lifetime. After an audible sigh he took a deep breath and bemoaned, “I thought I was done…”
And just like that, he begrudgingly accepted my plea for help. I would spend the next hour laying out all of the reasons why graduate school was necessary. I explained that I would do everything I could to get some sort of financial aid and hammered on the fact that I would be closer to home. He accepted my plea for help in the initial seconds of the phone call, but it helped immensely that I was able to talk through what it would mean for me long-term over the next hour of the call.
You see, my dad loved talking through the details and getting all of the facts and information available before making a decision. He always wanted to make sure he was doing what he thought was best for his family.
He was my ultimate support system growing up. He was there for every baseball game. He watched me play football. He taught me how to golf and manage money. He was my rolemodel and closest friend. I hope to be half the dad he was.
Today would have been my dad’s 67th birthday. He passed away suddenly in June, and I would be lying if I said it has been anything other than hell since he left us. My mother and brother are coming over for dinner tonight. We’re going to grill some steaks and play Euchre afterwards, a card game my fiancee and I played with my parents almost every time we saw them. Dad loved that game.
You know, when I told my dad I wanted to start a fantasy football podcast on a random day in May, he wished me luck and said he would give it a listen.
Love and miss you always, Pops.
Alright, I’ve got all the facts and information I need. Let’s go.
HOT Quarterbacks in Week 5
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs. Jaguars
I can’t believe I was down on this guy going into the season. Hey, when you’re wrong, you’re wrong. I think it was an overreaction by the fantasy community as a whole over the loss of DeAndre Hopkins and what we thought it would/could mean for this offense. Currently QB13, Deshaun Watson is averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and has put up respectable numbers against the likes of the Chiefs (20.82 points), Ravens (14.7 points), Steelers (17.06 points), and Vikings (20.9 points). He’s had more than 250 passing yards in every game so far this season, combined for at least two scores in three out of four weeks, and now faces the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in week five. The Jaguars allow the third-most passing yards per attempt (8.3) and quarterbacks facing them are averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game. Look for them to hit the ground running after shedding Bill O’Brien.
Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers @ Falcons
My ‘Stream of the Week’ quarterback for week five, let me tell you why I’m high on Teddy Bridgewater. Through four weeks, Bridgewater is completing the highest percentage of passes in his career (74%). And it isn’t like they’re throwing the ball only a few times a game either, as the Panthers are averaging more than 35 passing attempts per game. If you take out Week 3 against the Chargers, that number goes up to almost 38 attempts per game, good for seventh-most in the league. And then you look at the match up against the Falcons this week and begin to drool. The Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks as their defense has given up a league-leading 13 passing touchdowns. They looked lost against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday Night Football, and I expect more of the same against Bridgewater in week five. Super sneaky play? Stash him after he erupts this week as he plays the Falcons again in Week 8.
Honorable Mentions:
I’m looking for Gardner Minshew II to surprise and for Lamar Jackson to run the Bengals out of the building this weekend. Kirk Cousins is going to be in a shootout trying to keep up with the Seahawks.
NOT Quarterbacks in Week 5
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Bears
Tom Brady threw five, yes FIVE touchdowns last week. I hear you. I see you. Thank you for yelling, but I’d appreciate it if we could go back to our logic, reasoning, and inside voices now. The Bears defense is no pushover. Currently giving up the second-fewest FPPG to quarterbacks in all of football, this looks to be a tough match up for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. When you couple that with their decimated receiving corps, I’m looking for other options in leagues where I drafted Tom Brady. And that doesn’t even mention their current injury situation: Howard is on IR, Godwin is out with a hammy, McCoy is out with an ankle, Fournette is doubtful with an ankle, Evans is questionable with an ankle, and Scotty Miller is dealing with a hip and groin issue. They’re beat up. In what may be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend, I’m avoiding Tom if I can. And I stand by that even after his amazing week four performance.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. Panthers
What an ugly display that night game was against the Packers, am I right? I’m not enthused for this weekend’s matchup against the Panthers at all either. Julio is out, and it looks like he may miss more than one week after not returning in the second half because of his hamstring injury. The Packers exposed the way to beat the Falcons if Julio is out: make Matt Ryan complete a pass to anyone other than Calvin Ridley. Did I mention that the Panthers have given up the third-fewest amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks? So far they’ve faced Derek Carr, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray. That’s no easy task. Did I mention Julio is out?
Honorable Mentions:
Pokes Drew Brees’s lifeless body.
HOT Running Backs in Week 5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is RB13 in half-ppr scoring, about 5-7 spots below where he was drafted after Damien Williams opted out of the season. Obviously, people were expecting more out of him than what he’s produced thus far. The good news? I see top-five production coming for the rookie this week against the Raiders. Through the first four weeks of the season, CEH has gone against the Texans (4th-most FPPG to RBs), Chargers (10th-fewest FPPG to RBs), Ravens (9th-fewest FPPG to RBs), and Patriots (6th-fewest FPPG to RBs). Brutal. The fact that he’s remained a fringe RB1 through the first four weeks and posted four double-digit fantasy weeks is a testament to that offense and his ability. The Raiders are currently giving up the most points to running backs with an average of more than 37 FPPG! Are you kidding me!? CEH managers rejoice and look forward to much easier sledding this week as CEH goes up against a bottom-barrel run defense.
Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers @ Falcons
I feel like I keep talking about how bad this Falcons defense is. Look, if your guys play the Falcons this year, they need to be in your lineup. How’s that for a hot-take? Spicy. Fuego. The Falcons are giving up almost 30 FPPG to RBs through four weeks, and man has Mike Davis looked like a stud. Mike Davis is third among all running backs in targets, behind only Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. The Falcons have allowed the second-most receptions to a running back this year (34). Bridgewater is going to go to Mike early and often in this one and man do CMC managers have to be upset they missed out on this match up if they missed out on Davis. Hopefully CMC is back for their week eight rematch.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Texans
What a year so far for James Robinson the League Winner. Robinson is second in receiving yards at running back, behind only Alvin Kamara. And it is only going to get better for the guy as we see his usage continue to increase. James Robinson’s snap percentage over four weeks, a story: 68%, 51%, 45%, and 76% last week. Sitting at sixth in FPPG, the guy is starting to see passing game work now too, with 10 targets in his last two games. That type of floor is what turns a solid RB2 into an RB1. And don’t go “selling high” on James Robinson, either. Lean on him and ride him until the wheels fall off.
Honorable Mentions:
If Kenyan Drake can’t do it against the Jets, he just plain can’t do it. I’m looking for Todd Gurley II to fall into the endzone against the Panthers this week.
NOT Running Backs in Week 5
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos @ Patriots
Hopefully all you Gordon managers out there listened to us and traded him away before Phillip Lindsay comes back into the fold this week. With MGIII looking at a carry split, the sixth-best opponent against RBs in the Patriots, and a middling quarterback situation, I am fading Melvin Gordon III this weekend. He needs to show he can produce in a timeshare on the Broncos before you expect production like his first four weeks to be a regular thing. Yes, I know he’s ninth in rushing yards. My question for you: Have you seen Phillip Lindsay run?
FYI: Phillip Lindsay is back this week. He's kind of good.#fantasyfootball #nfl pic.twitter.com/AlNEozL3Qh
— The Fantasy Football Sackos (@TheFFSackos) October 8, 2020
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles @ Steelers
What a start for the Philadelphia Eagles. It doesn’t get any easier this week as they #FlyEaglesFly right into the immovable object that is the Pittsburgh Steelers Defense. Making matters worse, the Steelers have had two weeks to prepare for the Eagles’ inept offense thanks to the Titans’ covid situation (can well call them covidiots?). Currently RB29 after missing week one with an injury, Miles Sanders is a flex play for me this weekend. The Steelers have allowed a total of 121 rushing yards through three games, and are giving up less than 16 FPPG to the RB position each week. Not great news for Sanders managers.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins @ 49ers
Going up against the healthy-ish 49ers this weekend will be no easy task for Myles Gaskin and the rest of the Miami Dolphins offense. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle coming back for their second game and the potential return of both Raheem Mostert and Jimmy Garoppolo, this game is looking like it will get out of hand early. Gaskin’s best game (12 points in half-ppr scoring) came in week 3 against the Jaguars, a game the Dolphins won. In games that they’ve lost, he averages a combined 13.7 touches as the team gets down and is forced to throw the ball. Yes, his passing-game work will afford him a modest floor, but going up against the rushing defense giving up the fewest amount of points to RBs doesn’t give me much home. I expect Gaskin to produce at his floor this week, making him a low-end flex play.
Honorable Mentions:
Damien Harris against a stout Broncos defense makes me nervous. Did you know that the Colts are giving up 3.8 YPC and have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown to RBs so far this season? Going to be a tough outing for Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson.
HOT Pass Catchers in Week 5
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings @ Seahawks
This is the last week you can get Justin Jefferson without paying an arm and a leg and the whole kitchen sink for him. The guy is nasty and can griddy like it’s his job. He’s leading all rookies in reception yards (348) and is the only rookie WR with a 90+ PFF grade through four weeks since ‘06. Fun fact: the only player in the last ten years to have more yards in their first four games than Justin Jefferson is none other than Stefon Diggs. Justin Jefferson is a surefire WR2 who will have occasional WR1 weeks for the rest of the season.
D.J. Moore & Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers @ Falcons
Th Falcons are littered with injuries in the defensive backfield. Look for D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to be open early and often as we mentioned earlier that Bridgewater is completing a career-best 74% of his passes.
Can we spend a minute talking about Robby Anderson’s tear to start the season? He’s 7th in targets, 11th in target rate, 12th in air yards share, 6th in red zone targets, 2nd in YAC and out-targeting D.J. Moore 34-32. Crazy. Congratulations to everyone who has him.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Baltimore Ravens vs. Bengals
Did you know that 44% of the Raven’s air yard share is being directed at Hollywood Brown? That means that 44% of all passing yardage traveling through the air, on both complete and incomplete passes, is directed at Brown. Incredible. Only two players in the NFL have a higher share of their team’s air yards. The offense is trying to go through him, but they’re having trouble executing so far.
Look, I know he’s been frustrating, but I think he gets back on track this week. He was tackled at the one-yard-line last week and was missed on two wide-open plays that would have been touchdowns the week before that. Don’t lose faith, and fire up Marquise Brown this weekend.
Evan Engram, New York Giants @ Cowboys
Currently TE25, Evan Engram has been a colossal letdown so far this season. But, did you know that he is third in targets (30) among all tight ends behind only Darren Waller (40) and Travis Kelce (34)? Look, the Giants started the season against the Steelers, Bears, 49ers, and Rams. Those are four playoff-caliber defenses in a row. From here on, their schedule opens up. The volume is there for Engram and Dallas is giving up the second-most FPPG to tight ends in the league each week (23.40). I also think this has the potential to be a high-scoring game with a decent chance for Engram to find the end zone. He’s a good buy-low candidate.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys vs. Giants
Tight ends averaging more targets per game than Dalton Schultz: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller. That’s the list. Currently TE9 in half-ppr scoring, Schultz has flourished in the absence of Blake Jarwin. I believe he finishes somewhere in the top six or top eight TEs in fantasy football this year, and I like him to have another solid weekend against the Giants this weekend.
Can we talk about the Cowboys offense for a minute? It leads the league in pass attempts per game (50.8) and passing play percentage (68.61%), and it is producing some incredible results: the Cowboys lead the league in both completions per game (34.2) and passing yards per game (407.8). On average, the Saints, Patriots, Texans, Colts, Rams, Browns, Ravens, and Vikings aren’t attempting as many passes as the Cowboys are completing each week. The volume for Schultz will be there.
Honorable Mentions:
Assuming they play, Jonnu Smith should pick up right where he left off against a Bills defense that is soft up the middle. CeeDee Lamb needs to be in your weekly starting lineup.
NOT Pass Catchers in Week 5
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Football Team
Yes, the Washington Football Team has a record of 1-3. But, they’ve also given up the fewest amount of fantasy points to WRs through the first four weeks of the season (20.30 per game). And while their schedule hasn’t been the most intimidating (PHI, @ARI, @CLE, BAL), they were able to hold DeAndre Hopkins to just 68 yards in week two, Odell Beckham Jr. to 59 yards in week three, and Marquise Brown to 86 yards last week. You’re obviously going to start both Woods and Kupp this week, but you should temper expectations.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns vs. Colts
If you put last week’s blow-up (glow up?) against the bottom barrel Cowboys defense aside, Odell is only averaging 9 FPPG in half-ppr. Ouch. The bad news? In comes the Indianapolis Colts this weekend, who are currently 8th in fantasy points against WRs. The Colts defense held D.J. CHark to 25 yards, Adam Thielen to 31 yards, and Braxton Berrios (who?) to 64 yards. Only Allen Robinson was able to put up a decent line against them (7/101/1) after getting garbage time work. The Colts defense is allowing the fewest number of opponent completions per game (18.2) and has the fifth-lowest opponent completion percentage (62.39%). Don’t expect much from Odell this weekend.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins @ 49ers
Unless DeVante is able to produce in garbage time, I don’t think it will be pretty for him against the finally-healthy San Francisco 49ers this weekend. San Francisco is allowing the sixth-fewest amount of completions by an opponent each week (20.5), the fourth-lowest opponent completion percentage (62.12%), and the second-fewest opponent yards per pass attempt (5.6). This one could get ugly in a hurry with the return of Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert.
Scotty Miller, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Bears
With Chris Godwin out and Mike Evans hobbled by an ankle injury, many fantasy players are turning to Scotty Miller to fill the void. Not so fast. The Bears are not a pushover team by any stretch, especially on defense. They’re allowing the lowest opponent completion percentage per game (57.37%), they’re tied for the fewest opponent passing touchdowns per game (0.8), and are allowing the fourth-lowest opponent average team passer rating (77.1).
Keep Scotty on your bench or the waiver wire this weekend.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles @ Steelers
A candidate for biggest draft bust through the first four weeks of the season, Zach Ertz draws another tough match up against the Steelers in week five. The Steelers are eighth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.6) and eighth in opponent completions per game (21.3). There is definitely some tough sledding ahead for Ertz and the rest of the beaten and battered Eagles offense against the Steelers.
I would pick up and start Dalton Schultz over playing Zach Ertz this weekend.
Words I never thought I’d say for $1,000.00, Alex.
Honorable Mentions
Brandon Cooks isn’t startable at this point and is droppable if he flops again this week. Darnell Mooney and Jimmy Graham are ahead of Anthony Miller in Bears pecking order. Avoid Jarvis Landry this weekend. Better yet, drop him.
